At a glance
- Since October 1, 2025, electricity on the day-ahead market has been traded in quarter hours instead of hours
- There are now 96 prices per day instead of 24
- The background is the Europe-wide harmonization to 15-minute intervals
- For generation and consumption, the profile within each hour now counts
- Forecasts at 15-minute resolution are becoming the standard
What has changed
Until the end of September 2025, European day-ahead trading determined one price for each hour of the following day. Since the delivery day of October 1, 2025, it has been quarter hours: the coupled day-ahead auction (Single Day-Ahead Coupling, SDAC) now calculates 96 prices per day. Hourly products can still be traded.
The background is EU rules under which trading and settlement periods in the electricity market are aligned uniformly to 15 minutes. On the German intraday market, 15-minute products have existed since 2011. Now the day-ahead market, the most important trading venue for the following day, is following suit.
Why the quarter hour makes the difference
A lot can happen within an hour. In the morning, solar feed-in rises steeply, and in the evening it drops just as quickly. Consumption also jumps, for example when businesses start their shifts. An hourly value only shows these ramps as an average.
In 15-minute trading, these differences become directly visible and are priced. Anyone who plans their feed-in or demand only by the hour gives away accuracy, and the deviations end up in the balancing group.
What this means for forecasting
For energy suppliers, traders, renewable aggregators and balance responsible parties, this means the forecast must reflect the quarter hour, not just the hour. This mainly affects:
- Generation forecasts for wind and solar, whose ramps change significantly within the hour
- Load forecasts with typical jumps at the start of shifts, at midday or at the end of the working day
- Schedules and bids, which can now be adjusted to the forecast quarter hour by quarter hour
- Systems and interfaces, which have to process four times as many values per day
The more accurately the forecast captures the profile within the hour, the better bids can be placed and imbalance energy avoided.
How metalogic supports you
mP Xnergy creates consumption and generation forecasts at 15-minute or hourly resolution and delivers them automatically to trading, scheduling and ETRM systems. New weather data is fed in continuously, so intraday decisions are also based on up-to-date values.
Find out more on our pages on load forecasting and generation forecasting, and for energy traders. Or contact us directly.
